Airbus has released its 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast (GMF), painting a bright future for the air cargo industry.
Over the next 20 years, the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft will grow by 45%, reaching 3,420 aircraft.
This expansion includes 815 existing freighters and 2,605 new additions. Breaking it down further, the 2,605 additional freighters split into 1,530 replacements for aging aircraft and 1,075 for pure growth.
By size, expect 1,120 small freighters, 855 mid-size widebodies, and 630 large widebodies. Production-wise, 1,670 will come from converting passenger planes, while 935 will be brand-new builds.
Key Drivers: GDP, Trade, and Cargo Demand
There are several factors fueling this boom. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and global trade top the list. Airbus projects trade to grow at a 2.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
As a result, air cargo volumes will expand at 3.3% per year, nearly doubling over two decades. Air cargo plays a vital role in supporting economies worldwide. It connects remote communities, delivers essential and health-critical items, and boosts local businesses in emerging markets.
During the pandemic era, air cargo proved indispensable. Now, Airbus sees steady, strong growth ahead.
Fleet Renewal: Efficiency Plays Key Role
The pandemic sparked a rapid surge in freighter numbers. The period saw more passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions and fewer retirements of old freighter aircrafts.
But now, Airbus forecasts a shift. Many older freighters are set to retire, replaced by fuel-efficient models.
This will see a steady emergence of dedicated cargo aircraft like the A350F, A320/A321 P2F conversions, and A330 P2F.
These greener, more efficient aircraft will modernize the global fleet, cutting emissions and costs.
Shifting Trade Lanes: A New Global Map
Air cargo flows are diversifying. Asia-Pacific is rising as an industrial powerhouse, with more countries joining the fray. Plus, GDP and population trends spotlight emerging giants: Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
These nations will become major consumer hubs. This means a gradual geography shift in air freight. Traditional routes will evolve, creating fresh opportunities worldwide.
Regional Demand: Where the Action Is
Of the 2,605 freighter deliveries needed, Asia-Pacific and North America dominate. They’ll claim nearly two-thirds of the market:
- Asia-Pacific: 850 aircraft
- North America: 920 aircraft
The following table shows how these two regions lead demand, driving innovation and investment:
Conclusion
Airbus’ forecast lays out a roadmap for sustainable growth. With efficient new freighters, diversified trade lanes, and booming emerging markets, air cargo will thrive.
Businesses, airlines, and investors should prepare now. In summary, the global freighter fleet hits 3,420 by 2045, up 45%.
Cargo volumes double at 3.3% annual growth. Replacements favor green tech, while Asia-Pacific and North America need 1,770 planes combined.
