Cirium, the world’s leading provider of aviation analytics, has released its annual Fleet Forecast. This trusted report outlines the future of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market.
Produced by Cirium Ascend Consultancy, the forecast predicts 46,500 aircraft deliveries worldwide over the next 20 years. These deliveries will total a staggering $3.4 trillion in value.
Airlines are ramping up investments in modern, sustainable planes to meet rising demand.
Challenges Slow Near-Term Growth
This year’s forecast arrives amid tough times for commercial aviation. Supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and delays in certifying new aircraft programs are slowing fleet expansion.
As a consequence, deliveries over the next seven years will drop by 6% compared to last year’s prediction. The main culprit is slower-than-expected production ramps for single-aisle aircraft.
Despite these hurdles, the long-term outlook shines bright. Overall deliveries will rise by 1% through 2044. This shows airlines’ commitment to fleet renewal and sustainability.
Key Findings from the Forecast
The report highlights several trends shaping aviation’s future. Here are the top insights:
Asia Leads the Way: This region will drive 45% of all deliveries. China and India top the list, fueled by booming passenger traffic and cargo needs.
Market Share Breakdown
Airbus and Boeing dominate, while China’s COMAC gains ground with 6% of global demand.
Fleet Composition:
- Single-aisle aircraft now make up 71% of the global fleet.
- Twin-aisle and regional jets lag behind pre-pandemic levels.
These shifts reflect airlines’ focus on efficient, mid-sized planes for high-demand routes.
Expert Insights on Aviation’s Future
Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, shares his view. “This year’s Cirium Fleet Forecast shows the global aviation industry moving forward with confidence despite near-term headwinds. Long-term demand remains robust across every region.”
“Airlines continue to invest in fleet renewal, and OEMs are boosting R&D budgets for next-generation aircraft. The next chapter of aviation growth hinges on supply chain resilience, production capacity, product innovation, and efficiency.”
Burnside emphasizes that challenges like supply issues are temporary. Strong demand will fuel steady growth.
Scope of the Forecast
The analysis covers aircraft from 30 seats and up, including their freighter versions. It excludes electric, hybrid, or hydrogen-powered programs. Experts predict commercial aviation will stick to conventional propulsion for now.
Instead, the focus is on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to cut emissions.
Why This Matters for Airlines and Investors
This Cirium Fleet Forecast offers a clear roadmap. It balances short-term risks with long-term opportunities. Airlines can plan fleet upgrades, while investors eye the $3.4 trillion market. Asia’s dominance signals huge potential in emerging economies.
As production stabilizes, expect faster delivery rates. OEMs like Airbus, Boeing, and COMAC are investing heavily.
Sustainability remains key, with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) continuing to be a key factor for greener flight operations.
In summary, aviation is resilient. Despite delays, 46,500 aircraft will transform global travel by 2044. This forecast guides the industry toward a sustainable, efficient future.
